Job ads data shows labour market improvement continues in Australia
A widely-watched private survey of job advertising shows the labour market strengthening, despite recent weak official figures.
ANZ’s job ads data shows a 1.5 per cent increase in the number of positions advertised in August, seasonally adjusted.
The figures stand in stark contrast to last month’s official ABS employment figures which showed a steep jump in the jobless rate from 6 to 6.4 per cent, the worst reading since August 2002.
ANZ’s chief economist Warren Hogan says his bank’s data provide evidence that the steep rise in unemployment is likely to be a statistical blip that will be at least partially reversed over coming months.
“ANZ job ads are up 8 per cent over the year to date, while the other key labour market condition cross-checks have also generally continued to improve recently,” he said.
“Importantly, these developments appear to jar with the surprise jump in July’s unemployment rate to 6.4 per cent and suggest recent labour market conditions are steadily improving.”
Mr Hogan cites recent strength in business confidence and capacity utilisation as signs that businesses are likely to start hiring more staff.
He also points to a fall in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits and increased household optimism around job prospects as signs the jobs market is already getting better than the ABS employment survey suggests.
“We envisage the unemployment rate remaining a touch above 6 per cent for a few quarters and only very gradually falling from there,” Mr Hogan added.
His view is similar to the Reserve Bank’s forecasts, which anticipate unemployment remaining stubbornly high for many months before improving slowly.
Mr Hogan says mining industry layoffs are likely to keep offsetting gains in residential and commercial construction, health and retail jobs for some time to come.
Source: www.abc.net.au
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